Twitter ROI Assessment for Indie Maker

Twitter ROI Analysis

The Verdict: Twitter is NOT ROI-positive

At your current performance, Twitter delivers a -94.83% ROI.

Your Numbers

Funnel Performance

20,000 impressions
    ↓ 5% engagement rate
1,000 profile visits
    ↓ 10% click-through
100 link clicks
    ↓ 2% conversion
2 signups
    ↓ 20% trial-to-paid
0.4 paying customers

Your funnel has a major bottleneck at the conversion stage. A 2% link click-to-signup conversion is significantly below industry average (typically 5-15% for B2B SaaS).

Breakeven Analysis

To break even at $600/month cost, you need:

• 103.4 signups per month (52x more than current)
• OR 20.7 paying customers (52x more)
• OR reduce time to 0.35 hours/week (from 3 hours)
• OR value your time at $0.97/hour (from $50)

Reality check: You’re getting 0.17 signups/hour. Even with 10x improvement (1.7 signups/hour), you’d still need 5 hours/week to break even.

Key Insights

Your conversion rate is the problem:

• 2% conversion (link click → signup) is very low
• This suggests either:
  • Audience mismatch (people clicking aren’t your target customers)
  • Landing page issues (unclear value prop, poor UX)
  • Weak call-to-action in tweets
  • Wrong traffic temperature (too cold)

Your funnel metrics aren’t terrible:

• 5% engagement rate (impression → profile visit) is acceptable
• 10% CTR (profile visit → link click) is decent
• The breakdown happens after the click

Strategic Options

Option 1: Fix the landing page first

• Before changing Twitter strategy, test your landing page
• A/B test signup flow with traffic from other sources
• If other channels convert at 2%, it’s the page; if higher, it’s Twitter audience fit
• Cost: 2-4 hours one-time vs. cutting potentially viable channel

Option 2: Drastically reduce time

• Cut Twitter to 30 minutes/week (scheduled posts only, zero engagement)
• If signups drop to 0-1/month: Twitter required engagement to work
• If signups stay at 1-2/month: you’ve found massive efficiency gain
• New cost: $100/month vs. $12 revenue = still negative but 83% less painful

Option 3: Test different content strategy

• Current: 3 hours → 2 signups (0.17/hr efficiency)
• Try: 1 hour on high-intent content (tutorials, case studies) + 2 hours elsewhere
• Track which tweet types drive signups (need UTM codes)
• 30-day experiment to validate content-market fit

Option 4: Reframe as brand building

• Accept Twitter is not a direct-response channel for you
• Budget 1 hour/week max ($200/month) as “awareness tax”
• Track brand metrics instead: follower growth, mentions, DMs
• Measure indirect value: newsletter signups, partnership inquiries

Option 5: Cut Twitter entirely

• Reallocate 3 hours/week to higher-ROI channels
• Industry alternatives with better efficiency:
  • SEO content: 1.5 hrs/post → 3-8 signups/month (0.67-1.78/hr)
  • Email newsletter: 2 hrs/issue → 5-10 signups (0.83-1.67/hr)
  • Reddit: 2 hrs focused posting → 3-6 signups (0.5-1.0/hr)
  • LinkedIn: 2 hrs → 4-8 signups (0.67-1.33/hr)

Recommended Experiment

Next 30 days:

1. Install UTM tracking TODAY (15 min setup)

   • Use utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=post_type
   • Track which tweets actually drive signups

2. Test landing page with paid traffic (4 hrs + $100 budget)

   • Run small Google/Facebook ad campaign
   • Measure conversion rate with different traffic source
   • If it converts at 5-10%: problem is Twitter audience
   • If it converts at 2%: problem is landing page

3. Reduce Twitter to 1 hour/week (starting Monday)

   • Batch-schedule 3-5 posts on Sunday
   • Zero real-time engagement
   • Track if signups drop proportionally

4. Invest saved 2 hours into alternative channel

   • Start weekly newsletter OR
   • Write one SEO blog post OR
   • Test LinkedIn with focused strategy

Success criteria after 30 days:

• Know exact conversion rate by channel (via UTM)
• Know if landing page or audience is the issue
• Have comparison data: Twitter vs. alternative channel
• Make data-driven decision: continue, reduce, or quit Twitter

The Bottom Line

Twitter is costing you $588/month in opportunity cost for $12 in revenue.

Your time is worth $50/hour. At current performance, every hour on Twitter generates $0.97 in revenue. You’re working at a 98% loss.

The 2% conversion rate is the killer. Before making drastic changes:

1. Validate your landing page converts (test with other traffic)
2. Set up proper attribution (UTM codes)
3. Run a 30-day reduced-time experiment

If your landing page converts well with other traffic sources, Twitter may simply not have your audience. If it converts poorly everywhere, fix the page before evaluating channels.

Action Items

• Today: Set up UTM tracking for all Twitter links (15 min)
• This week: Run $100 paid traffic test to validate landing page (4 hrs)
• Monday: Reduce Twitter to 1 hr/week, batch schedule posts
• This month: Start alternative channel (newsletter/SEO/LinkedIn)
• Day 30: Review UTM data and decide: continue at reduced level, or cut entirely

Most likely outcome: Twitter is not your channel. The 2% conversion suggests audience mismatch. Reallocate to SEO or email for 3-5x better efficiency.