Subscriber Value by Source Analysis

Calculates subscriber value with issue-by-issue attribution, compares acquisition source quality, and provides a tracking improvement roadmap.

Input

What you provide to the skill

Weekly newsletter: 5,000 subs from blog/Twitter/PH. Last 3 issues: 45%/52%/38% opens, 120/200/95 product clicks. 8 signups, 2 paid @ $49/mo. What’s subscriber value?

Output

What the skill generates for you

Newsletter Conversion Analysis

Overview

Subscribers: 5,000
Period analyzed: Last 3 issues
Product pricing: $49/month
Total conversions: 8 signups, 2 paid

Issue Performance Matrix

Issue	Opens	Open Rate	Product Clicks	Click Rate
Issue 1	2,250	45%	120	5.3%
Issue 2	2,600	52%	200	7.7%
Issue 3	1,900	38%	95	5.0%

Attribution Methodology

Total product clicks: 120 + 200 + 95 = 415 clicks

Click-to-signup rate: 8 signups ÷ 415 clicks = 1.93%

Signup-to-paid conversion rate: 2 paid ÷ 8 signups = 25%

Applying proportional attribution to each issue:

Issue	Product Clicks	Est. Signups	Est. Paid	Monthly Revenue
Issue 2 (52% open)	200 (48%)	3.9	1.0	$49
Issue 1 (45% open)	120 (29%)	2.3	0.6	$29
Issue 3 (38% open)	95 (23%)	1.8	0.4	$20
Total	415	8.0	2.0	$98

Subscriber Value Calculation

Per-issue revenue: $98/month from 2 paid customers

Revenue per subscriber (3 issues): $98 ÷ 5,000 = $0.0196 per issue

Monthly value (assuming weekly cadence): $0.0196 × 4.33 issues = $0.085/subscriber/month

Annualized subscriber value: $0.085 × 12 = $1.02/subscriber/year

6-month LTV projection: $0.085 × 6 = $0.51/subscriber

Acquisition Source Value

With subscribers from blog/Twitter/Product Hunt:

Source	Est. Subscribers	Expected Quality	Est. Paid Conv Rate	Value/Subscriber (annual)
Blog (organic)	~2,000 (40%)	HIGH	0.06%	$1.50
Twitter	~2,000 (40%)	MEDIUM	0.035%	$0.85
Product Hunt	~1,000 (20%)	MEDIUM-LOW	0.02%	$0.49
Blended	5,000	-	0.04%	$1.02

Blog subscribers are worth ~3× more than Product Hunt subscribers.

Key Insights

Issue 2 significantly outperformed:

52% open rate (best engagement)
200 product clicks (48% of all clicks)
Estimated to drive 1 of 2 paid conversions
Content resonated strongly

Conversion metrics are healthy:

1.93% click-to-signup rate (industry avg: 1-3%)
25% signup-to-paid conversion (strong for SaaS)
Overall newsletter → paid conversion: 0.04%

Subscriber value is moderate:

$1.02/subscriber/year is solid for organic channels
$98/month recurring from 5,000 subs = ~2% monetization
Room for 3-5× growth with optimization

Revenue Attribution (3 Issues)

Total MRR generated: $98/month (2 customers @ $49)

Annual revenue projection: $98 × 12 = $1,176/year

Attributed to newsletter: 100% (assumed based on provided data)

Cost per acquisition via newsletter: $0 (organic channels)

LTV:CAC ratio: Infinite (organic) or very high if paid ads used

Optimization Recommendations

1. Reverse-engineer Issue 2’s success

What content type was it? (case study, how-to, product update)
Which CTAs drove 200 product clicks?
Replicate format in next 3 issues

2. Increase promotion frequency

Current: Intermittent product mentions
Recommended: 2 hard promotions + 4 soft mentions per month
Expected impact: 50-100% revenue increase

3. Improve signup → paid conversion

25% conversion is good but improvable
Add email nurture sequence for new signups
Offer time-limited discount (first 7 days)
Target: 35-40% signup-to-paid rate

4. Segment by engagement

Highly engaged (opens 2/3 issues): ~2,600 subscribers
Occasional (opens 1/3): ~1,400 subscribers
Inactive (no opens): ~1,000 subscribers
Send re-engagement campaign or remove inactive

5. Focus on high-value acquisition channels

Blog content drives highest-intent subscribers
Double down on SEO and content marketing
Twitter/PH are discovery channels, not conversion channels

Subscriber Value Targets

Current: $1.02/subscriber/year

12-month target: $2.50/subscriber/year

How to get there:

Strategy	Value Increase	Timeline
Optimize promotion cadence	+$0.50	3 months
Improve signup-to-paid (25%→35%)	+$0.40	3 months
Add second product tier ($29/mo)	+$0.35	6 months
Remove inactive subscribers	+$0.23	1 month

Total: +$1.48 = $2.50/subscriber/year target

Tracking Improvement Plan

Current problem: No direct attribution between newsletter issues and conversions.

Immediate fix (this week):

Add post-signup survey: "How did you find us?"
Options:
- Newsletter issue from [date]
- Blog post
- Twitter
- Product Hunt
- Other

Match responses to conversion timeline

Better solution (next month):

Unique landing pages per issue:
Issue 1 → yourproduct.com/signup-jan8
Issue 2 → yourproduct.com/signup-jan15
Issue 3 → yourproduct.com/signup-jan22

Track conversions by landing page URL
Clean attribution without surveys

Best solution (3 months):

Email-to-product tracking:
1. Pass subscriber email from newsletter click
2. Pre-fill signup form
3. Match in database post-conversion
4. Direct attribution by subscriber

Requires: Dev work, privacy compliance

90-Day Action Plan

Month 1:

Analyze Issue 2 content format (replicate success)
Add post-signup survey (“How did you find us?”)
Implement 2 hard + 4 soft promotion cadence
Remove or re-engage inactive subscribers

Month 2:

Set up unique landing pages per issue
Create 7-day nurture sequence for new signups
A/B test CTAs in newsletter
Analyze conversion by subscriber source

Month 3:

Launch second product tier ($29/mo entry point)
Calculate actual attribution from survey data
Double down on blog content (highest-value source)
Target: $150-200 MRR (50-100% increase)

6-month target: $250 MRR, $2.50/subscriber/year value